Atmospheric River (b)rats; Perspective and Progression; Flow Forecasts

December 30, 2024

Perspective is a useful tool when evaluating progression. I’ll tell a short story that I promise is (somewhat) relevant.

In March of 2024, I was invited on a high flow Chamberlain Falls lap. At the time, I’d been boating for about six months with at least 10 or so laps on the run under my belt. This invitation however was different; projected flows were to be 2,400 cfs, which is over 1,000 cfs higher than I’d ever run it. This invitation also carried weight in a different way as it served as a pseudo audition to join a crew of next-level boaters.

With that said, I packed up a loaned creek boat (thanks Steve!) and joined the squad. Within the first few rapids, I knew things were different. Maybe just a bit more challenging skill wise, but I was intimidated nonetheless. I had to fight harder to stay upright and moving forward as the boils worked hard to bring me down to the depths of the river. In the end, all went well save for a few rapids and a handful of flips.

Fast forward to this weekend - we were running the same run at as high or even higher flows while an atmospheric river slammed into Northern California. Due to schedules and jobs, on both days we had no choice but to put on to rising rivers. Though generally not considered a best practice, I felt confident because I was aware of the current levels, as well as the highest realistic levels that we could experience during the day.

A big part of the run planning process comes down to forecasting. Several tools are invaluable to us paddlers and come winter time, all browsers on all devices are full of flow gauge and forecasting data. It is not uncommon to see me anxiously checking my phone, waiting for the next California Nevada River Forecasting Center (CNFRC) forecast to drop.

Generally, CNFRC releases new forecasts at 9am and 3pm daily during the weekdays in the wet season, and at 9am daily during the weekends and during the dry season. Thanks to speedy and efficient government work (I can make that joke because I’m also a public servant), forecasts are often released early.

When I pulled up the forecast on the morning of Friday December 27, 2024, here’s what I saw. Pay attention to the blue line, which represents the actual observed flows. The green line represents the forecasted flows, at the time of the forecast posting.

Knowing that the flows were forecasted for about a 2,300 cfs peak, I felt comfortable putting onto that river even though it was rising. Of course, it’s well known that weather tends to say “fuck the forecast” and decide on it’s own path, but these data are nonetheless a valuable guidance in setting expectations. In my experience, I’ve found the forecasts to be generally accurate, but being a scientist by training, I understand that models are not the end-all-be-all representations of real world conditions. So please, don’t lambast the poor weatherman and complain that they’re always wrong. They’re not. It’s just the nature of science and uncertainty. Unfortunately, most people don’t deal well with uncertainty (me included).

So in evaluating the accuracy of this forecast, we see that it was on the low side. While this is not an ideal situation as lower end flow is considered less pushy (and easier difficulty) than high flow, it was somewhat close. Which brings me to my next point - confidence and progression.

Last March, there was no amount of money you could have paid me to take my size small Ripper 2 into Chamberlain Falls at anything above 1500 cfs. This season is completely different; I feel far more confident in managing the slicy stern and keeping upright and moving forward. I also finally feel that my read and run skills are passable, and I can spot swim-inducing holes with a bit more ease.

See, I told you I’d relate this rambling back to the original story: perspective. Amazing what nine months of borderline obsessive boating habits can do for confidence. Such a far cry from being gripped out of my mind and sneaking lines here and there. Ok, obnoxious bragging over.

Aaaaanddd for the photos:

Day 1: Chamberlain Falls, North Fork American

1st lap - 2.4 ft on Mineral Bar gauge

2nd lap - 2.7 ft

after shuttle (4pm) - 3.4 ft